Tap,Slow Restart to NA Oil Services &Equipment-Weekly Insights &Analytics:3Q Earnings on M Completions an Overhang
Pubdate：2016-10-24 11:01
Source：liyanping
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This week, we kick off 3Q16 earnings season with HAL, FTI and CLB onWednesday and SLB after the close Thursday. As we highlighted in our preview,NAM onshore completions have lagged the rig count (and investor expectations)considerably and are likely to drive divergence in 3Q results across the group.
Recent aggregate data reveal meaningful underperformance: per IHS, while U.S.
well spuds were up 14% q/q in 3Q tracking the rig count (hz +15%), wells frackedslid 5% q/q (horizontal -8%) and stage count fell 2%. The EIA’s latest DUC datashowed well spuds in the major unconventional basins were +15% q/q whilecompletions fell 1% in 3Q. Poor customer mix and sticky pricing likely add to thepressure on margins, and we see scope for 3Q misses for SPN and BHI (primarilyon heightened expectations for the latter) among NAM onshore-levered names.
We believe investors are expecting Baker to raise its cost reduction target to $1bn,but a lower number or slower pace of execution could induce a sell-off in what isa consensus long favorite. By contrast, HAL and SLB have sufficiently temperedexpectations, in our view, and could deliver modest beats on margins this quarter.
NAM completions should pick up (at least modestly) in 4Q on a natural lag todrilling but we suspect many E&Ps will wait for 2017 when budgets reload. Anarrow recovery principally focused on the Permian risks pushing out the margin(and earnings) recovery even as activity ramps next year given fierce competition,latent slack in the active fleet and less robust mix. On a relative basis, our toppicks in large caps: SLB and HAL; in small caps CLB, MRC and TTI.
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